There are lots of opportunities that show up throughout life. Some are like doors, which you choose to leave open or not; some are like trains, meaning you only have one chance to catch it. There's always a time when you have to look at a situation and choose your path. This may be either a good or bad decision, but it's not just about luck. There are ways of knowing which option is more likely to be a good one, and that possibility is often inside us. All we need to reveal it is some sort of a motivation, something that acts as a fuel to our brains (which tend to be lazy, thus the need to wake them up with this motivation).
Take the professions in WoW as an example. You obviously have no way to know what Blizzard will implement, but you can know what's the potential of each profession in the present. If you're well-informed about them, you'll know you can make higher profits by combining a few professions than with just one of them. If you're in a "frozen" state, unsure if you should or should not take Inscription, Jewelcrafting, or whatever, don't hesitate in taking them. Cataclysm is for sure a year away. Isn't a year more than enough to take as much as you can from a profession? You'll make plenty of gold until then, and if you regret of it by the time the expansion comes, you can always walk back, and choose another door. It's not a train. Changing professions is just a click away.
Now, let's take the example of Titanium Ore pre-3.2. It was a train. You either took all your luggage in it, spending loads on Titanium, expecting a trip to Wonderland (which is what happened), or you were too scared to go on a train trip, didn't get on it, and you'll never be able to get on it again. Deep inside, you knew there was potential on Titanium, but you were afraid to take the risk. That's where luck comes in. Luck to have the right hunch at the right time. Some time before 3.2 I went "Hey, what the heck! I can still prospect it all if it doesn't pull off as I want!" and bought a lot of Titanium. I had that hunch and was lucky for it to work nicely. The fuel to my brains was a plan B (it's always good to have one). You can't really know beforehand if all this betting pays off, but you can do your best to minimise damage to you if it doesn't go as you expect.
With these examples, I want to tell you that there are opportunities you should evaluate as either a door or a train in this game. If it's a door, you can go back and forth if you want. If it's a train, you must decide if you want to take the risk, but remember it's not just about luck. You can have something to say on it.
Friday, September 18, 2009